Seasonal characteristics, cycles, as well as long- and short-term predictions of pulmonary tuberculosis in China

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the seasonal characteristics and cycle of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in China, make long- and short-term predictions, and provide basis for the formulation of prevention and control measures. Methods The seasonal characteristics of PTB occurrence in China were analyzed by the CensusX-13 seasonal adjustment method. The cycle of PTB occurrence was analyzed by Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filtering method. Long-term prediction was conducted by the linear regression model based on the decomposed long-term trend, and the short-term prediction was made by Holt-Winter seasonal exponential smoothing model. Results The occurrence of PTB in China from 2010 to 2021 exhibited clear seasonal characteristics, with a concentration of reported cases in the se- cond quarter of each year. The peak period for reported cases was from March to July annually. There were approximately 6 cycles, with an average length of 21 months.Overall, there was a declining long-term trend. The short- and long-term prediction results were good. Conclusion Taking into consideration the seasonal characteristics and cycle of PTB, combined with the pathological features of PTB, effective preventive and control measures should be taken before the peak period of the disease.