Application of ARIMA model in predicting carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae healthcare-associated infection
Author:
Affiliation:

Department of Nursing, People's Hospital of Jiawang District of Xuzhou, Xuzhou 221011, China

Clc Number:

+2]]>

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in the prediction of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) healthcare-associated infection (HAI). Methods The monthly incidence of CRKP HAI in a hospital from January 2018 to June 2022 was selected. ARIMA model was established by SPSS19.0, and the fitting of the model were analyzed. CRKP HAI data from July 2021 to June 2022 was used to verify the model and evaluate its predictive value. Results Monthly CRKP HAI incidence of hospitalized patients from January 2018 to June 2022 was used to establish the model and conduct fitting process, finally acquired the optimal model ARIMA (0, 1, 9). With an average relative error of 7.76%, the model-predicted value for CRKP HAI incidence was consistent with the actual value, thus fitting well with actual data. Conclusion ARIMA model can effectively fit and predict the incidence of CRKP HAI, and provide scientific guidance for CRKP HAI prevention and control.

    Reference
    Related
Get Citation

黄世芳,吴晓琴,石理冉,等. ARIMA模型在耐碳青霉烯类肺炎克雷伯菌医院感染预测中的应用[J].中国感染控制杂志英文版,2022,(12):1200-1205. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20223173.
Shi-fang HUANG, Xiao-qin WU, Li-ran SHI, et al. Application of ARIMA model in predicting carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae healthcare-associated infection[J]. Chin J Infect Control, 2022,(12):1200-1205. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20223173.

Copy
Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:July 28,2022
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: April 28,2024
  • Published: