Abstract:ObjectiveTo quantitatively analyze the epidemic situation of tuberculosis(TB) by modeling the data of tuberculosis in prefectures of Xinjiang, and predict the new cases of tuberculosis in prefectures of Xinjiang.MethodsA dynamic model was used to fit the data of TB in 14 prefectures in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2014, the results of the fitting were verified by tuberculosis data in 2015-2017, verified results were evaluated, estimated values and basic reproductive numbers (R0) of parameters in each region were obtained, data of new TB in 2018-2022 were predicted.ResultsThe verification of TB data in 2015-2017 showed that the actual values fell within the 95% confidence interval of the predictive value curve, model was fit well. R0 in Southern Kashgar was 11.38 (95%CI:11.33-11.50), R0 in Urumqi City in Eastern Xinjiang and Ili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture in Northern Xinjiang were 5.46 (95% CI: 5.28-5.50) and 2.22 (95% CI: 2.18-2.28) respectively. The epidemic situation of TB in Southern Xinjiang was more serious than that in Northern and Eastern Xinjiang, epidemic situation of TB in Kashgar Prefecture was most serious. The predicted results showed that the number of new TB from 2018 to 2022 will slowly grow in most prefectures.ConclusionThe dynamical model of TB fits well and is feasible in this study, it can be used for prediction of new TB cases, intervention and management in Southern Xinjiang should be strengthened to control the prevalence of TB.