Simulation of the epidemic of influenza A(H1N1) in a university using cellular automata model

Abstract:

ObjectiveTo explore the application value of cellular automata(CA) in simulating the epidemic spread of outbreak of influenza A(H1N1).MethodsThe publications regarding influenza A(H1N1) from January 2009 to March 2015 were collected from the China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI), epidemiological data of H1N1 were retrieved according to inclusion criteria, the Matlab 7.0 software was adopted to construct CA model for simulating and analyzing the epidemic of H1N1 occurred in a university in Chongqing between October 12 and November 20,2009.ResultsThere were a total of 17 820 students in this university, the epidemic of influenza lasted 40 days in 2009; When the parameter, the effective infection rate was 0.04, the model of CA fit well, and gave estimate for basic reproduction number (R0) 1.202.ConclusionCA has certain reliability in simulating epidemics of airborne infectious diseases, it can provide reference for the prevention and control of disease.