气象因素对中国大陆手足口病影响的时空异质特征探究

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in the mainland of China

摘要:

目的 探究气象因素对中国大陆手足口病(HFMD)发病率影响的区域差异和季节演变特征,为不同省份应对季节变化制定HFMD的预防和控制措施提供理论支撑。方法 收集2011年1月—2020年12月中国大陆31个省份(不包括港澳台地区)的HFMD发病率数据和相应的气象数据,采用时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型对气象因素影响HFMD发病率的区域差异和季节特征进行量化分析。结果 2011—2020年中国大陆HFMD年发病率具有周期性,且偶数年发病率高于奇数年,整体呈现出先上升后下降的变化趋势。各省份HFMD发病率具有显著的季节特征,5—7月和9—10月为高发月份。HFMD的高发省份主要集中在南部地区,并且各省份的HFMD发病率具有显著的空间集聚特征。GTWR模型的结果表明,平均风速对内蒙古、北京以及东北地区的HFMD发病率具有促进作用,对其他省份发病率具有抑制作用,且在区域上呈现出由西南地区向外发散减弱的演变特征,在季节上呈现出"抛物线"型的变化趋势。除黑龙江和吉林外,平均气温和累计降水对各省份HFMD发病率均具有促进作用,在区域上均呈现出由南向北逐渐减弱的变化特征,在季节上平均风速的影响呈现出"M"型的变化特征,累计降水的影响呈现出"W"型的变化特征。累计日照对各省份HFMD发病率的影响均表现为抑制作用,在区域上呈现出由东南向西北逐渐减弱的变化特征,在季节上呈现出"U"型的变化特征。结论 气象因素对中国大陆HFMD发病率的影响具有明显的时空异质特征,建议不同省份制定不同的HFMD防控措施应对季节变化,以有效降低HFMD的发病率。

Abstract:

Objective To explore the regional differences and seasonal evolution characteristics of the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) in the mainland of China, and provide theoretical support for different provinces to develop HFMD prevention and control measures in response to seasonal changes. Methods HFMD incidence data and corresponding meteorological data across 31 provinces in the mainland of China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from January 2011 to December 2020 were collec-ted. The geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model was employed to quantitatively analyze the regional differences and seasonality of meteorological impacts on HFMD incidence. Results From 2011 to 2020, the average annual incidence of HFMD in the mainland of China displayed periodicity with even years a higher incidence than odd years, and an initial increase followed by a decreasing trend. The incidence in different provinces showed significant seasonal characteristics, peaking from May to July and September to October. High-incidence provinces of HFMD were predominantly located in the southern region, and exhibiting significant spatial clustering characteristics of HFMD in each province. GTWR model analysis results indicated that the average wind speed promoted the incidence of HFMD in Inner Mongolia, Beijing, and the northeastern region, but inhibited the incidence in other provinces. In addition, the regional evolution characteristics of the average wind speed were divergent and weakened from southwest China, showing a "parabolic" changing trend in seasonality. Except for Heilongjiang and Jilin, the average temperature and cumulative precipitation generally promoted HFMD incidence of each province, presenting regional changing characteristics of weakening gradually from south to north, as well as "M"-shaped seasonal effects of wind speed and "W"-shaped effects of cumulative precipitation. Cumulative sunlight exposure had an inhibitory effect on HFMD incidence of each province, presenting regional characteristics of weakening gradually from southeast to northwest and a "U"-shaped seasonal pattern. Conclusion The impact of meteorological factors on HFMD incidence in the mainland of China exhibits significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. It is recommended that different provinces formulate distinct HFMD prevention and control measures in response to seasonal changes, so as to reduce the incidence of HFMD effectively.