深圳市南山区2005—2016年淋病流行特征及ARIMA模型发病趋势预测

Epidemiological characteristics of gonorrhea from 2005 to 2016 and ARIMA model for predicting the incidence trend in Nanshan District of Shenzhen

摘要:

目的了解深圳市南山区淋病流行特征及发病趋势，为制定控制策略提供科学依据。方法对2005年1月—2016年12月深圳市南山区报告的淋病病例资料进行流行病学分析，并利用ARIMA模型进行发病趋势预测。结果深圳市南山区2005—2016年累计报告淋病9 590例，报告发病率波动在59.45/10万～102.74/10万，年均报告发病率为78.79/10万。年龄主要集中在20～45岁，占88.06%；职业以工人、干部职员和家务及待业为主，占70.23%。淋病月发病率波动在2.84/10万～10.56/10万。构建的ARIMA（1,1,1）模型，对深圳市南山区2017年淋病发病率进行预测，结果显示2017年1—5月深圳市南山区淋病预测发病率与实际发病率的波动形势基本一致，实际发病率略高于预测值，但均是在预测值的95%置信区间。结论该区淋病疫情较重，ARIMA模型能较精准地预测淋病的发病趋势，预测结果提示淋病的发病维持在较高水平，建议根据淋病流行特点采取有效的防治措施。

关键词:

淋病; 淋病奈瑟菌; 流行病学; ARIMA模型; 发病率; 趋势

Abstract:

ObjectiveTo investigate epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of gonorrhea in Nanshan District of Shenzhen, and provide a scientific basis for making control strategies.MethodsAn epidemiological analysis was performed on gonorrhea cases reported in Nanshan District of Shenzhen from January 2005 to December 2016, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model was used to predict the incidence trend. ResultsIn Nanshan District, a total of 9 590 cases of gonorrhea were reported from 2005 to 2016, the reported incidence ranged from 59.45/100,000 to 102.74/100,000, the average annual reported incidence was 78.79/100,000. 88.06% of cases mainly concentrated in 20-45 years old, 70.23% of occupations were mainly workers, official staff and houseworks. The monthly incidence of gonorrhea ranged 2.84/100,000-10.56/100,000. The ARIMA (1,1,1) model was constructed to predict the incidence of gonorrhea in Nanshan District of Shenzhen in 2017, it showed that the fluctuation of predicted incidence and actual incidence of gonorrhea in January-May 2017 was basically the same, the actual incidence was slightly higher than the predicted value, but it was in the 95% confidence interval of the predicted value. ConclusionThe epidemic situation of gonorrhea in this area is serious, ARIMA model can more accurately predict the trend of gonorrhea, the prediction results suggest that the incidence of gonorrhea is maintained at a high level, so effective measures based on epidemiological features are urgently needed to control gonorrhea.

Key words:

Gonorrhea; Neisseria gonorrhoeae; epidemiology; ARIMA model; incidence; trend